Comments on: Now About That National League MVP Race

By: Jonah

Jonah — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:31:23 +0000

Welcome to the blog, Mark – excellent first comment.

My response would be that one day isn’t enough to change my mind.

Lincecum has undoubtedly done things that are hard to quantify but hugely valuable too. As I noted in the BTF thread that sprang from this post, we’ve yet to see a definitive study on how much a SP helps his team when he saves his bullpen. Lincecum leads MLB in IP per start, on *average* pitching into the 8th inning. That means every time Timmy pitches, either the Giants can avoid using their crappy RP and just their 1-2 best guys in a high-leverage spot — or if they’re up by 4 or more, they can use their crappier guys, knowing Lincecum has done the heavy lifting and an inning and change probably isn’t enough time for even their stinkiest RP to blow the lead.

I do agree that was a great play by Pujols, though. Also a spectacularly lazy effort by Matt Kemp: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-4-191/Pujols-runs-over-Dodgers.html

By: sheadawg

sheadawg — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:21:31 +0000

Jonah – while I agree that your premise that a starting pitcher can be the MVP (the fact that the Cards have had Carpenter for most of the season is case in point – seems like he is as big of a reason as any that they are in first), I think two things have been demonstrated over the last couple of days.
(1) Lincecum may not be able to keep up his ridiculous level of play over the last month in a half of the season. He had what for him was a terrible start with 5 ER, 3BB and 6 hits in 6 innings. The Giants won, but this is one of the few times they could thank their offense.
(2) Pujols, yet again, helped win a game for the Cards with not his bat, but his baserunning. He works a walk from Broxton in the 9th, steals second on a 3-0 count to Matt Holiday, and advances to third on a wild throw by Russell Martin. Holliday drives him in with a sac fly – Cards win, 3-2. That is amazing stuff – not sure how something like this can be properly quantified even in the more advanced measurements like WAR. He picked the right situation, perfect moment, etc, and it was not the first time this season.
This combined with his ridiculous numbers just highlights to me why he is MVP this year. Still it is an interesting argument.

By: And That Happened

And That Happened — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:07:15 +0000

[...] 8, Reds 5: A day after Jonah pimps Lincecum’s MVP case, Timmy drops a relative stinker (6 IP, 6 H, 5 R). The Giants pull it out, however, because [...]

By: DG’s 10@10: The Saving Bullets Theory | Bird Land | STLtoday

DG’s 10@10: The Saving Bullets Theory | Bird Land | STLtoday — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:25:11 +0000

[...] San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum is a challenger to all of their award candidacies. [...]

By: Rockabye

Rockabye — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:14:45 +0000

I know that Pujols gets dinged, too, but how much or how it could be compared to Lincecum, I don’t know. I’m sure there’s a study somewhere in whether a lower level of talent in the order in the NL plus the benefits of no DH is more valuable to the NL pitcher than a lower level of talent in the rotation and bullpen is to the NL hitter. Paging Dave Cameron?

I’m not sure who I’d vote for, Lincecum or Pujols, but it seems (going blind, not looking at monthly splits) like Lincecum’s getting better while Pujols can’t quite maintain his absurd pre-ASG pace. This would lead me to lean Lincecum.

Most importantly: I’m glad I understand stats well enough to understand arguments like these. And learning them wasn’t even hard.

By: Jonah

Jonah — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 22:47:03 +0000

Re: Lincecum, if you want to argue that he should be dinged for facing NL competition, the same goes for Pujols. Lincecum vs. Greinke for ’09 might be more interesting, since each pitcher’s facing different batters.

And I agree that Greinke deserves consideration for AL MVP too. Purely an oversight on my part. Realized it a minute after putting up the post, but didn’t want to sneak it in there after the fact, prefer to accept the whiff.

By: Rockabye

Rockabye — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 22:38:13 +0000

The one thing that bugs me with Timmy: Lincecum’s blowing away the NL, where only three of the top 10 and six of the top 15 teams in the majors in wOBA are. He doesn’t, unfortunately, get to pitch to the worst team in the league in wOBa, but that’s because they’re his Giants.

Why aren’t we talking about Greinke decimating the AL (and far better offenses) in ways similar to Timmy, and why doesn’t he make your list? (I know FanGraphs has some league-based adjustments, but I’m not sure how much of that factors into WAR.) As Neyer wrote: “Let’s be honest. It’s really about the guy on the best team with the most RBI.”

That is sad.