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When In Doubt, Let Jay Jaffe Settle The Issue

4 June 2009

Here’s the exact sequence of events that led to the the Jorge Posada discussion on the Internets Tuesday:

At the end of a post about Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, Rob Neyer quickly dismisses Posada’s Hall of Fame chances.

Since I have somehow unwittingly become a crusader for underrated ex-Yankees, including Mike Mussina and Tim Raines (I’m proud of the fact that a Google search for Tim Raines brings up our little hoser-orchestrated Raines for HoF advocacy site), as well as Bernie Williams (I’m covering him next, also wildly underrated), I felt the need to jump to Posada’s defense.

Since I’m also insanely busy these days, though, between the Rays book, various articles, and liveblogs about every sport short of lawn bowling, I had time for maybe 20 minutes to research and write a response to Rob’s post. This meant I ended up using OPS+ and FRAA, as opposed to a properly constructed metric such as WAR (or another, which we’ll get to in a second). The result was love for Posada, but using analysis that needed upgrading.

R.J. Anderson, Craig Calcaterra, BTF and several others chimed in with crisper analysis.

The site then got firebombed with traffic, which I guess happens then you write about a Yankees from the 1990s dynasty, doubly so when you bring the Hall of Fame into play.

Then I thought: “Why didn’t I just have Jay Jaffe run the numbers?”

Turns out Jay’s even busier than I am these days. But he just popped in a few minutes ago on IM to send me his blog post on Posada’s HoF candidacy, using his excellent JAWS metric to measure both career and peak performances against other catchers in MLB history.

Bottom line: Go read Jay’s piece now. He wraps up the Posada debate better than I could in a trillion years.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. skyking162 permalink
    4 June 2009 9:25 am

    Jonah, I’m a little worried about how your Bernie analysis is going to turn out. The two defensive metrics for his era (TotalZone and STATS ZR) really don’t like him, to the tune of -100 runs over his career. Half of that for TZ is due to his arm. I’m thinking he was probably underrated by many non-Yankees based on his bat, but he gives a ton of that away with defense. Unless, of course, you disagree with the two metrics and have a different way of addressing defense?


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