I’m excited to report that I’ll be making my 2nd-ever appearance on NPR’s Science Friday show, hosted by Ira Flatow (first appearance was in support of “Baseball Between The Numbers”, a book I still highly recommend, three years after the fact).
Air time is tomorrow, 2:20 pm ET. I’ll be on a full 40 minutes, right up ’til show’s end at 3 pm. Tune in to NPR to listen. Or click here to listen live.
The topic I’ll be discussing is the high level of run scoring at new Yankee Stadium in its first month and a half of existence. Slated to join me on the panel will be one of the smart guys at the excellent home run tracking site Hit Tracker, and an expert on wind patterns (and the effect those can have on a batted ball).
It’s a perfect forum for me, really: Two extremely smart people making convincing arguments about how and why balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium–and some hoser with a B.A. from some Canadian school you’ve never heard of, sticking his fingers in his ears, shouting “La-la-la I can’t hear you!” and arguing that any and all attempts to qualify or quantify 13 games worth of results are nothing more than examples of confirmation bias and post hoc reasoning. Any stathead worth his salt will tell you that it takes three years (243 home games) to calculate proper park factors. The fact that anyone could make sweeping conclusions based on just over 5% of that sample size, no matter how impressive the arguer’s meteorological or baseballogical credentials may be, is perplexing and vexing.
I mean…13 games?! One insane offensive display, triggered by a starting pitcher who may simply be broken and a mopup man who probably never should have been on a big league roster in the first place is responsible for a big chunk of the perception that Yankee Stadium is Coors Field East.
Here’s the thing. It may very well be that Yankee Stadium does turn out to be a high-offense ballpark, where home runs are easy to come by. I went to four games in four nights last week (and three more in the ensuing three nights at Fenway) as part of my research for the upcoming Rays book. During that time, I saw plenty of balls fly out of the House That Shortsighted Planning Built–especially down the right field line. But just because it might turn out to be true later doesn’t mean you can take a huge shortcut and avoid collecting the data you need to make a proper evaluation.
One more thing. In the past year and a half, the Yankees have been roasted by the media (and fans of both their team and other teams) for the following offenses, real or perceived:
A-Rod
The Steinbrenner Power Struggle
Ditching Joe Torre
Hiring Joe Girardi
Spending The GDP Of A Small Island Nation For Three Players
Not Spending The GDP Of A Small Island Nation On Set-Up Men
Making Joba Chamberlain A Starter/Not Leaving Him In The Pen
Leaving Derek Jeter At Shortstop
Not Trading For Johan Santana
Not Signing Carlos Beltran (Extra Points for 20/20 Hindsight Dating Back 5 Years)
Giving The Center Field Job To Melky Cabrera
Not Giving The Center Field Job To Melky Cabrera
…and about six dozen other offenses (chime in, it’s fun!).
Leaving aside how wrongheaded many of those complaints are (the Yankees don’t have a viable SS behind Jeter; a good 200-inning SP is more valuable than a great 70-inning reliever; the Yankees’ payroll actually went DOWN from 2008 to 2009 levels), here’s what I want to know:
What’s so bad about having a ballpark that’s conducive to offense and/or home runs? One of the quirks that make baseball great is the differences in home environments. This isn’t the NBA or NHL, where all playing surfaces have the exact same dimensions, and weather conditions have no effect. In baseball, you can have everything from oppressive August heat in Arlington juking offensive stats to misty marine air and deep dimensions in San Diego knocking down flyballs to right-center. Balls fly out in Denver due to Mile High conditions; good luck hitting one over the deep, deep wall in left-center at Safeco Field in Seattle.
If Yankee Stadium turns out to skew closer to Arlington and Denver than San Diego and Seattle…so what?! Variety is the spice of baseball. And if you’re the Yankees, no biggie. Sign a pitching staff full of Derek Lowes and a lineup full of Three True Outcome guys (better nine years early than never, right Dr. Jazayerli?), and let the games begin.
UPDATE: WSJ colleague Darren Everson checks in on Yankee Stadium today, to see if the new park is destined to be a failure.
UPDATE 2: The podcast for the NPR segment is up. Click here to listen.
from your own site.
New Yankee Stadium and Science Friday
I’m excited to report that I’ll be making my 2nd-ever appearance on NPR’s Science Friday show, hosted by Ira Flatow (first appearance was in support of “Baseball Between The Numbers”, a book I still highly recommend, three years after the fact).
Air time is tomorrow, 2:20 pm ET. I’ll be on a full 40 minutes, right up ’til show’s end at 3 pm. Tune in to NPR to listen. Or click here to listen live.
The topic I’ll be discussing is the high level of run scoring at new Yankee Stadium in its first month and a half of existence. Slated to join me on the panel will be one of the smart guys at the excellent home run tracking site Hit Tracker, and an expert on wind patterns (and the effect those can have on a batted ball).
It’s a perfect forum for me, really: Two extremely smart people making convincing arguments about how and why balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium–and some hoser with a B.A. from some Canadian school you’ve never heard of, sticking his fingers in his ears, shouting “La-la-la I can’t hear you!” and arguing that any and all attempts to qualify or quantify 13 games worth of results are nothing more than examples of confirmation bias and post hoc reasoning. Any stathead worth his salt will tell you that it takes three years (243 home games) to calculate proper park factors. The fact that anyone could make sweeping conclusions based on just over 5% of that sample size, no matter how impressive the arguer’s meteorological or baseballogical credentials may be, is perplexing and vexing.
I mean…13 games?! One insane offensive display, triggered by a starting pitcher who may simply be broken and a mopup man who probably never should have been on a big league roster in the first place is responsible for a big chunk of the perception that Yankee Stadium is Coors Field East.
Here’s the thing. It may very well be that Yankee Stadium does turn out to be a high-offense ballpark, where home runs are easy to come by. I went to four games in four nights last week (and three more in the ensuing three nights at Fenway) as part of my research for the upcoming Rays book. During that time, I saw plenty of balls fly out of the House That Shortsighted Planning Built–especially down the right field line. But just because it might turn out to be true later doesn’t mean you can take a huge shortcut and avoid collecting the data you need to make a proper evaluation.
One more thing. In the past year and a half, the Yankees have been roasted by the media (and fans of both their team and other teams) for the following offenses, real or perceived:
A-Rod
The Steinbrenner Power Struggle
Ditching Joe Torre
Hiring Joe Girardi
Spending The GDP Of A Small Island Nation For Three Players
Not Spending The GDP Of A Small Island Nation On Set-Up Men
Making Joba Chamberlain A Starter/Not Leaving Him In The Pen
Leaving Derek Jeter At Shortstop
Not Trading For Johan Santana
Not Signing Carlos Beltran (Extra Points for 20/20 Hindsight Dating Back 5 Years)
Giving The Center Field Job To Melky Cabrera
Not Giving The Center Field Job To Melky Cabrera
…and about six dozen other offenses (chime in, it’s fun!).
Leaving aside how wrongheaded many of those complaints are (the Yankees don’t have a viable SS behind Jeter; a good 200-inning SP is more valuable than a great 70-inning reliever; the Yankees’ payroll actually went DOWN from 2008 to 2009 levels), here’s what I want to know:
What’s so bad about having a ballpark that’s conducive to offense and/or home runs? One of the quirks that make baseball great is the differences in home environments. This isn’t the NBA or NHL, where all playing surfaces have the exact same dimensions, and weather conditions have no effect. In baseball, you can have everything from oppressive August heat in Arlington juking offensive stats to misty marine air and deep dimensions in San Diego knocking down flyballs to right-center. Balls fly out in Denver due to Mile High conditions; good luck hitting one over the deep, deep wall in left-center at Safeco Field in Seattle.
If Yankee Stadium turns out to skew closer to Arlington and Denver than San Diego and Seattle…so what?! Variety is the spice of baseball. And if you’re the Yankees, no biggie. Sign a pitching staff full of Derek Lowes and a lineup full of Three True Outcome guys (better nine years early than never, right Dr. Jazayerli?), and let the games begin.
UPDATE: WSJ colleague Darren Everson checks in on Yankee Stadium today, to see if the new park is destined to be a failure.
UPDATE 2: The podcast for the NPR segment is up. Click here to listen.
This entry was posted on 14 May 2009 at 2:28 pm and is filed under Radio, Random commentary. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments.
Tags: Baseball, Chien-Ming Wang, Jumping to conclusions, MLB, New York Yankees, NPR, Science Friday, Yankee Stadium
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