First Column for SI.com
29 April 2009
It’s on “The Rush to Judgment”, freaking out over a small number of games. Check it out.
While we’re here, allow me to present Dave Cameron’s excellent counter-argument for FanGraphs, “Small Sample Usefulness”.
Obviously the trick is to thread the needle between not overreacting to, say, six games at Yankee Stadium (given that it typically takes three years to construct useful park effect ratings/adjustments) and adjusting expectations when an early-season performance is telling you something (Dave’s example of Victor Martinez returning to form after a miserable, injury-filled 2008 is a good example).
Maybe the bigger question is: At what point do we start to take a team or player’s performance really seriously? Tricky stuff.
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Proud member of the Rush To Judgement All-Stars..the Yankees getting swept by Boston had me giving up no the season..the return of JobaPhil now has me ready for the championship parade..I’ll continue to come to your blog for reasoned analysis though! That said, it’s not wishful thinking to say that Big Papi Ortiz is almost done..his bat looks terribly slow..
Funny you mention that, James. I’m working on a post I hope to have up later today which specifically looks at Ortiz. I’m not totally sure he’s done, but I’d certainly be a little worried.