Guest Post: College Hoops Power Rankings

Today’s guest blogger is Warren Margolies. Starting today and running every two weeks, Warren will weigh in with his Power Rankings, breaking down his top 10 teams in the country.

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We’ve reached a point in the college basketball season where we have enough information to start separating the wheat from the chaff – identifying which teams with gaudy records have been legitimately impressive, and which ones are bound to fall apart once they actually start playing some real competition. There will be a ton of fluctuation in this list between now and Selection Sunday, to be sure, but it’s still a fun exercise to try and create a top 10. The core purpose of this list is identifying which teams are legitimately capable of making a lot of noise in the Dance, based on what I’ve seen thus far.

1. North Carolina (13-1)
Put me firmly in the camp that thinks this is the most talented college basketball team since ’95-’96 Kentucky. That said, they lost to BC because they gave up way too many offensive boards, a possible Achilles Heel for this bunch, and something to keep an eye on when they face really good offensive rebounding teams like Miami and Clemson. A decent share of the blame for this early deficiency falls to Tyler Hansbrough, who has gone from grabbing 19.8% of opponent misses last year to a mere 14.8% this year.

2. Pittsburgh (14-0)
They have to be considered the #1 threat to UNC after that virtuoso performance they put on at the Verizon Center Saturday afternoon. A year ago, the Panthers’ dirty little secret was that they weren’t a great defensive squad, thanks mostly to some mediocre defensive rebounding. They seem to have fixed that problem thus far – their defensive rebounding percentage has gone from 66.8% last year to 70.8% this year. We’ll know more after they travel to Louisville on the 17th of this month, but for now, I’m considering them legit.

3. Duke (12-1)
The strange thing here is that they’re off to an impressive start despite some relatively horrid perimeter shooting. Last season, 39.1 percent of their shots came from beyond the arc, and they made 37.7 percent of them as a team. This year, those figures are down to 32.6 and 32.4, respectively. Once a few more treys start falling for Greg Paulus (14 of 46) and Kyle Singler (18 of 54), this offense is going to be even more dangerous than it already is.

4. Wake Forest (13-0)
To travel cross country and beat BYU in their house is an impressive win and elevates this team to lofty heights for now. They turn the ball over too often on offense (21.1% of the time, highlighted by Jeff Teague giving it away on 22.3% of the possessions he uses) but their defense can officially be considered stingy at this point. Their game next Sunday against UNC is going to be an absolute track meet – when adjusted for opponents, the Heels play at the fifth-fastest pace in D-I; the Deacs play at the eighth-fastest.

5. UConn (13-1)
I’ll give them a mulligan for their home loss to Georgetown, since they do have those impressive neutral court wins over Miami and Wisconsin to their credit, along with that virtual road win over Gonzaga. I get the sense A.J. Price is still getting his sea legs back after his summer knee surgery – he’s 16 of 49 from inside the arc thus far, after hitting 48% of his two point attempts last year. Once he hits his full stride, this offense may be even better than it already is – a scary thought indeed, and one that may have this team rising as we get closer to March.

6. Gonzaga (8-4)
Remember, a large portion of my rankings are general upside, rather than how a team has necessarily performed to date. Despite the mixed results thus far, Austin Daye could provide a huge offensive shot in the arm by making more threes and getting to the charity stripe more often. If he is able to make said improvements, this could be a very dangerous team, because they’ll sure D you up – opponents are only making 39.8% of their attempts from inside the arc.

7. Georgetown (10-3)
The trying to play great defense without actually getting defensive rebounds experiment is only going to work to a point. Every once in a while, they’re going to run into a team like they did Pitt this weekend (or Tennessee last month) who hits a decent percentage of the multitude of opportunities presented to them. Fortunately for them, their entire starting five is so efficient on the offensive end (four of them make at least 56% of their twos) that they still may be able to outscore some teams. Even so, a defensive board every now and again wouldn’t hurt their chances.

8. UCLA (12-2)
They’ve had two tests thus far (against Michigan at the Garden and in Austin against Texas), and they’ve gone 0-2. A nine-point win over the Ducks in Eugene to open Pac-10 play makes me think they’ve ironed out most of their early issues. Something to watch—they’re allowing their opponents to convert 48.2% of their two-point attempts, far too high of a percentage. Kevin Love and Lorenzo Mata-Real aren’t walking through that door, and this may not end up being the same sort of lockdown defensive squad we’re so used to from Ben Howland and his charges.

9. Oklahoma (14-1)
I’m still not entirely convinced this is really one of the ten best teams in the country, but I’ll leave them here for now on the strength of quality wins over Davidson and Purdue. This has not been a great defensive team so far – they give up too many offensive rebounds and force too few turnovers. Taylor Griffin has the potential to improve matters on the defensive rebounding front – he snatched 17.9% of opponent misses a year ago, but has only made his way to 13.1% this campaign.

10. Clemson (15-0)
Here’s a team that was legitimately really good last season, only nobody realized it because they got upset by Villanova in the first round of the Dance. This year, they’re at it again. The Tigers combine great offensive work down low – getting to 39.9% of their own misses (26th in the nation) and making 55.1% of their two pointers (20th best nationally) –with an odd lack of defensive rebounding (only boarding 63.3% of their opponents’ misses, 286th best in D-I). That said, they were terrible on the defensive boards last year and overcame it by not letting their opponents make shots in the first place. It appears they have the same plan this year.

Also under consideration: Tennessee, Texas, Michigan State

Warren Margolies is an attorney living in Washington, DC and an avid watcher and writer of college hoops.