Because I’m often wrong…
…once in a while I have to make a note of being right. Back in a late-February interview in spring training, I asked Arizona Diamondbacks General Manager Josh Byrnes about his/the team’s decision to sign left fielder Eric Byrnes to a three-year contract extension, considering they had top outfield prospects like Carlos Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez waiting in the wings. The Q&A, which appeared at ESPN.com, can be read here. Here’s the question I asked:
Last year you signed Eric Byrnes to a three-year, $30 million contract extension. Byrnes will be in his mid-30s by the end of the deal, and offensively he’s about a league-average corner outfielder right now. You also had Carlos Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez in the organization at the time, waiting in the wings. How much of the decision to sign Byrnes was because of his popularity with the fans, or other off-field factors?
Why is this a big deal now? Simple. Here’s Eric Byrnes’ batting line, year to date, compared to Quentin’s, after the latter was traded to the White Sox for disappointing first base prospect Chris Carter:
Byrnes: .213 AVG/.277 OBP/.361 SLG
Quentin: .299 AVG/.410 OBP/.586 SLG
Quentin is also tied for the AL lead in homers and is second in OPS, just behind Milton Bradley.
Not that we could have known that Quentin would destroy AL pitching in his first two months as a big league starter. But given the likelihood that Byrnes would regress with age, and that going with the unproven but talented Quentin would’ve freed up $10 million a year ffor two years to acquire other talent, you have to scratch your head a bit.
Josh Byrnes is still one of the best GMs in the business, and you can’t argue with the Dbacks’ 28-19 record, good for 1st place in the NL West and tied for the best mark in the National League. But the GM’s decision to keep his namesake as the team’s starting left fielder, rather than trusting in another young player to join the ranks of Justin Upton and company, shows that even the best in the business make mistakes, and that even the most analytical among us can be seduced by intangible qualities such as veteran leadership and popularity with fans, rather than making the hard decision and going with the best value play.
In other words, being a major league GM is often a lot harder than it looks.
Tags: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baseball, Carlos Quentin, Eric Byrnes, Josh Byrnes
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24 May 2008 at 9:17 am
Quentin, Young, Upton would arguably be the best OF in the game.
Another example of a smart GM making a mistake is the Rays Andrew Friedman leaving Josh Hamilton unprotected in the Rule V draft. Everybody knew Hamilton was extremely talented, but he had never played over Class A and was coming back from years of personal problems. I don’t fault Friedman for making the move because nobody saw Hamilton playing this well this quickly. I’m sure a change of scenary also helped Josh and his family move on. It was probably the best for Hamilton to start fresh somewhere else, but I think an OF of Crawford, B. Upton, Hamilton would be right up there with what Quentin, Young and J. Upton could’ve been.
24 May 2008 at 10:25 am
I think the key is isolating whether or not something was a bad move at the time. You’re more plugged into the Rays’ specific situation than I am, Tommy, so you might have a better feel for whether letting Hamilton go, at the time, really seemed like it would come back to bite them. I know Hamilton was totally off my radar screen at the time.
Whereas when the Dbacks gave Eric Byrnes that big contract, then followed by selling low on Quentin, I immediately hated both moves.
25 May 2008 at 1:02 pm
I don’t think Hamilton, himself, knew this would happen, but just yesterday Andrew Friedman admitted it was a mistake to leave him unprotected. His comments come as Hamilton will make his Tropicana Field debut this week, just too bad it comes in a Rangers uniform.